Thursday, November 29, 2007

Jack and Jill

Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a bucket of ?money. Money? They are continuing to fill their bucket with stocks without any consideration to the value of these equities. They are not worried at all as they are buying "safe" mutual funds.

Everyone knows mutual funds are safe. Jack and Jill know they don't know how to pick good stocks so they leave that to the fund manager. He is an expert.

When you look at the long term record of 99% of the mutual funds you will see that expertise has been sadly lacking. I hate to remind you of the 2000 to 2003 period, but I must. In fact I must tell you it is going to happen again. Now you want to know when?.and so do I.

And that is the problem with almost every fund manager. As long as the market is going up they can't do much damage to your account, but when it rolls over and heads down they have no idea how to invest when a bear market is in progress. Not a single one of them will acknowledge that cash is a position.

Cash is a position? They are in shock. Of course they are. If brokerage customers put their money in a money market account while the market is falling it means they do not make any commission at all and if they recommend this to their customers the brokerage manager will fire them because he won't make any money either. "Keep your customers fully invested or I'll show you the door" is the manager's comment.

You must learn when to sell. Any fool can buy, but it is the wise man who knows when to sell. To see the condition of the overall market one of the best indicators is the SP500 Index. Your broker compares everything he does with the SP500 because it is a broad base of 500 stocks that are widely traded.

The finest indicator is the SP500 Index. Draw a 40-week chart of the closing prices. If you don't know how ask your broker. He will tell you. Write it down and save it. It is very simple. Have him set up a 40-week Simple Moving Average to appear on that chart. Look at 5 years worth of prices. Immediately you will see that if you are in the market while the 40-week MA is going up you are making money and if you are out of all your positions while the index average is going down you will not lose money. It doesn't get any easier that that.

Jack and Jill can fill their pail as the market is going up and need not spill their accumulation while they walk confidently down the hill holding their bucket full of cash not equities.

Stock Market System ... ONLINE STOCK TRADING ... Beyond Day Trading Basics & Tips

Day trading is all about making buy and sell decisions. When you make a trade either your going to lose money or your going to make money, and some other times you will break even. When you win some body else will lose and so forth, but that's NOT what's important.

The most important aspect of day trading is the knowledge FILTER you employ to make your buy/sell decisions. There are many "fantastic" strategies outhere, but you need to test them in order to discover which ones help you the most. That's part of your homework as a daytrader. Test, test and test again.

Complicated strategies that rely on a "boat load" of technical indicators can make you slow, and being slow in this game can be as dangerous as not knowing what to do in the first place.

I think the worst thing that can happen to a beginner trader is to get information overload. It's better to go step by step, and test a simple strategy that can show you how to focus on concrete ways to make money.

Fortunatly there are some good sites on the web today that can show you how to trade in a practical and effective way. One of those sites is Profitable Stock Market ( ProfitableStockMarket.com )

In the end, day trading is all about buying and selling according to your knowledge FILTER. Once you master and follow youre proven filter parameters like a clock, you can expect to start making serious amounts of cash on a consistent basis.

Series 7 Exam

If you are looking to become a licensed Stockbroker, you need to know about the Series 7.

The Series 7 is a 250 question exam that when passed, licenses you to act as a Registered Representative. Persons who receive this license are allowed to sell most securities. These securities would include: Stock, Bonds, Options, Mutual Funds and Annuities. The license itself is active while you are practicing it. Practicing with a Series 7 means that you are either employed or affiliated with a member firm. If you leave the business, your license will still remain active for 2 years after your last day with the firm. If you do not re-enter the business within 2 years, your license will expire. You would then have to re-take the exam again.

The Series 7 exam itself is comprised of many topics although not equally divided. Approximately 50 questions will be on Municipal Bonds alone. Other major topics include Options, Industry Rules and Customer Account handling.

The SERIES 7 is a multiple choice test graded on 250 questions administered on computer by an NASD testing vendor (Prometric Technology Center). 70% is needed to pass the SERIES 7 Exam. You will be given 6 hours to complete the exam in two 3 hour parts. Each question is worth .4 of a point. 175 questions correct will equal a passing grade. The score is not curved or rounded up so yes, if you get 174 questions right, you will get a 69.6% and you will fail. Each part also includes 5 experimental questions, which do not count on your total score. You will not know which ones are the experimental questions. Each exam is different, meaning if you take your test next to someone else, your test will not be the same. The percentages will be the same but the questions that each individual is tested on will be random. This applies to all Licensing exams but the difference between tests is less with smaller content exams like the Series 63.

You will be given a calculator to use at the center. Applicants are not permitted to bring their own. Scrap paper will be given to you as well for you to use during the test. Once the test officially starts you can write down anything you want (Formulas, Rules etc.). The computer also offers the student the ability to change their answers at the end of the first or second part of the test. Meaning, if you wish to change an answer to a question in the first half, you will have to wait until the end of the first half to do it. Once the second half starts, you will be unable to view your first half. Basically, you are taking 2 different 125 question exams. Even if you are unsure what the correct answer to a question is, you must enter something before the next question is shown.

Don't Cheat: Today, the testing centers require fingerprint verification when you take your test. A student was caught a few years ago on camera cheating in the testing room. This person had a tiny video camera device on his tie and a listening transmitter in his ear. He was actually filming his screen while someone else at another location was feeding him the answers. I didn't believe this one at first but several people told it to me. Pretty amazing. Needless to say, he was nabbed and busted. Just study and you will pass....and maybe learn something too!

Why Investors Use Financial Planners

Do you have a financial planner? Does one of your friends have a financial planner? Maybe you take your advice from your broker. As I have said countless times before a broker will make you broker. And a financial planner won't do any better. I know. You thought they would.

Let's look at the real reason investors choose to take advice from these so called "experts". Once they get you into their office or sitting with you at the dining room table or kitchen table you are doomed. Mr. F.P. has come prepared with beautiful slick color brochures and will have a presentation that will utterly confuse, bedazzle and befuddle. You will sit there and be afraid to ask a question because you know it is so dumb. You can't say 'no' or you will be admitting how dumb you are. And he knows that.

It is not that he is a liar. (I hope.) It is that all financial planners and brokers are taught the Wall Street method of "making money". Unfortunately it doesn't work.

The basic things that have been pounded into their heads are false. Let's look at the big three: Do Research, Dollar Cost Average and Buy and Hold. There are others, but these you will hear from every broker and financial planner because that is what the big brokerage companies and mutual fund families want. They want your money and they want to keep it even when the stocks or funds you own go down. In fact, buy some more.

Research is like blowing in the wind. You will be inundated with green sheets, blue sheets, red sheets, slick full color glossies, videos, etc., etc. Think about this. If you can obtain this information then so can everyone else. Everything that is known about a particular stock is reflected in the last price. Morningstar will sell you a beautiful package about a company, but it is worthless. What you really want to know is will it go up after I buy it?

Of course, if it goes down you will be encouraged to buy more to average out your price so that when it heads up again you will make a fortune. Yes, and pigs can fly.

If it does go down your advisor may say to hold on as the market always comes back. He doesn't tell you it may take 20 years or that the company might go out of business. Buy and Hold is the greatest myth of Wall Street. No one ever tells you to sell. Have you been told you don't have a loss until you take it? Please!

You got that advisor because you have not admitted to your self that you cannot pull the trigger. When you have a stock or fund that is falling you don't want to sell. You have to take charge of your money. Just you.

When you look back at the performance of most financial planners from 2000 to 2003 you know you can do a better job. Always ask to see what they did then. If they lost money you don't want them. Don't let them compare their performance to the S&P500. That's smoke and mirrors.

KISS Formula

There are formulas for just about everything, but it has been shown that the simpler the formula or method of doing a particular task the better it works. It has evolved down to KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid.

This also applies to trading in the stock market. There are literally hundreds of formulas, both technical and fundamental that are easily available to investors. Each trader has his own method he uses. Every professional trader on the floor of the stock exchange has his own variation on some major proven formula. The more skilled he becomes with it the more he feels it is the best one.

Sometimes it takes years for a trader to settle on one method or group of methods that he uses to signal buys and sells. It took me many years to find that technical group that worked for me when I was an exchange member.

For some it evolves into long term trading and for others it can be buying and selling in a matter of minutes. The time period is not important. The method is. Even as a floor trader on the commodity exchange I had only two criteria I watched before entering into any position.

All professional traders and investors are aware of the single most important fact and that is how much I am willing to lose before I exit this new position. Every KISS formula has an exit strategy. Every professional knows in advance how much he will allow himself to lose if he is wrong. The professional does not set a limit on the winning side of a trade only on the losing side.

Ask any full time professional and he will tell you if he is right 50% of the time he considers that to be phenomenal. When I was on the floor I was only right about 40% of the time, even about 20% and wrong about 40%. BUT I made $3.00 for every dollar I lost. Small losses and big winners are the key to success. This is the key to any profitable formula - keeping the losses small.

When I see advertisements in the financial papers for methods claiming to be right 80%, 90% of the time I cringe. It just can't be. There is no trader I ever met who was that good and I have known some exceptional traders.

The major text on technical analysis is "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee now in the 17th printing of the Fifth Edition that lists multitudes of methods. They all work, but many are complicated. A magazine called Futures Truth analyses 200 commodity trading systems in each issue. Fundamental Theory is equally complex.

There are software programs that allow the investors to enter as many as 30 parameters. The more complex it is the less chance it has to work. And the biggest obstacle to any program is the trader himself. He cannot hesitate when a buy or sell signal is given

Different Ways of Buying Stocks

Let's say you are interested in this one company. You read its annual report, like what you see and your calculation indicates that the stock is trading way below its fair value. You are excited. It is time to buy! Hang on for a second. There are several techniques of buying stocks out there. Some are better than the other. Let me explore several useful ones.

Buy all at limit price. Assume that we have done our research and we want to invest $ 2000 to buy stock XYZ at $ 12/share. We can do this by setting a limit order of $ 12/share to buy 166 shares of XYZ. The advantage for this method is that we will not pay more than $ 12 for our XYZ share. If you use market order, instead of limit order, XYZ might run up to $ 13/share and execute your order at $ 12.50. Fifty cents may not sound a lot, but in this case, you just saves $ 83 for using limit order. Any better methods? Check out this next one.

Buying half at $12. Buying half when it drops. Stock market is volatile. It goes up and down due to various reasons. In this case, we set a limit order to buy $ 1000 worth of XYZ at $ 12/share. When XYZ drops lower, and if you think that the reason that you initially bought it is still valid, then you can buy more XYZ at a lower price. If XYZ drops by $ 1, you already save $ 83 off the bag. What else is there?

Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). With DCA, investors normally buy a specified dollar of stock at regular intervals. In this case, you can decide to invest $ 500 monthly in XYZ stock. If the XYZ stock falls, you can buy more shares next month. If XYZ stock rises, you would buy less. But it is ok. You already made money on XYZ stocks that you bought at a lower price.

Which method is the best? There is no clear cut answer on this. Personally, I will never use market order when buying a stock. Commission for buying a limit order is not as expensive as it used to be. My favorite methods is by buying half position initially and then add half more when the share price drops. If you have done your research and you feel that $ 12 per share is a good buy, then why won't you buy some more if it goes down to $ 10? Just make sure that the fundamental remains the same when the stock drops.

While knowing how to initiate your position is important, I am more inclined in focusing on how to calculate fair value of a stock. This is where the bulk of your investment return comes from.

Friday, October 26, 2007

Student Home Purchase Plan

Tuition costs are climbing, housing costs are climbing, it seems like all the costs for students are climbing these days. Students can afford cost increases less than any other demographic in Canada. Because of this, parents and students alike are looking for new ways to offset the costs of education.
Student loans can be used to defer these costs to some extent, but they need to be repaid after graduation. It's difficult to climb the corporate ladder or get ahead in life when you have $30,000 worth of debt before your first job is even found!
Bursaries, grants, and scholarships are another great source of funding for a student. However, the amount of money available is thinning, and the competition is growing stiffer for this money each year.
The average student, over a 4 year degree, pays over $16,000 in tuition and books. Housing costs approximately $38,000 for a 4 year degree. This is based on rent of $800 per month for 48 months.
This means the total cost of education for a student is over $54,000 before paying for any clothes, food, or recreational expenses. Given that the average student doesn't qualify for more than about $9000/year in student loans, this means an average student needs to find over $18,000 during their 4 year education career to be able to go to school. Not to mention the cost of food and clothes.
So how does a student get ahead in life, avoid massive student loans, and still get an education?
Many parents have been turning to Real Estate as a solution for a solution. Let me explain what they're doing?
When their first child enrolls in university, the parents purchase a small home with easy access to the University. The more bedrooms the better! This opens many possibilities for the parents, as well as the students.
First, the property will likely appreciate in value, presenting the parents with equity that can later be used to repay student loans or their own personal use.
Second, the rent the student would have paid to a landlord or dormitory is being used to repay the mortgage, creating more equity in the property.
Third, being a rental property, the tax benefits of the property are fabulous. Any interest paid on the mortgage is a write-off. Maintenance and improvements, as well as taxes and often utilities, are expenses that can be written off.
Fourth, there is the potential for additional tenants. Suppose you were to purchase a 3 bedroom bungalow for approximately $150,000. The cost of the mortgage would be approximately $900; based on a 5.5% 25 year mortgage with 5% down payment. That's just $100 dollars more than rent on a typical 1 bedroom apartment close to the University of Alberta right now.
Your child finds 2 roommates to share expenses with. They each pay you $600 per month; the tenants are then saving $200 per month over the cost of renting an apartment. A good deal for them!
Your total revenue on the home is $1200 per month. Your child lives for free, and clears $300 per month, which can be put towards living expenses and spending money. Now your child can go to school, not work, and focus on studying.
What if you were to finish the basement with an additional 2 bedrooms? That would essentially double your income, or allow you to "clear" $1500 per month. Your child gets $500 per month for expenses and living, and there's an additional $12000/year ($100/month) to be put towards tuition, books, and other university expenses.
Let's look at this again, using 2 family as examples. The Smith's and the Jones'.
The Smiths send their son, Steve, to university for 4 years. He rents an apartment in residence for $800 per month while going to school. His tuition, including books, is about $4000. Spending money, clothing, and food costs are approximately $500 per month. So Steve's annual costs are approximately $20,000 annually.
Student loans and scholarships (assuming Scott qualifies) cover approximately half of this, leaving him and his parents to cover the rest. Scott has to get a part time job to pay for some of it, and work full time in the summers to help.
The Smiths struggle through, using their savings and hard work to get through a tough 4 years. When Scott graduates, he has to start repaying is $30,000-$35,000 in student loans. He'll be making that payment for the next 10 years?
Now let's look at the Jones'.
The Jones' purchase a home close to the school for their daughter Sally. They make a 5% down payment ($7500) on a home worth $150,000. It has 3+2 bedrooms. Their daughter lives in 1 room, and manages the rest of the tenants in exchange for free rent and a monthly allowance of $500 to cover her living expenses. Each of the additional 4 rooms are rented for $600 per month including utilities and laundry. A great deal for ANY student.
Each month Sally collects the rent from her 4 roommates, totaling $2400. She keeps her $500, and deposits the rest into a bank account dedicated to the property. The mortgage and taxes get paid each month from that same account. Together, these cost $1100 ($900 for the mortgage and $200 for the taxes). That leaves an end-of-the month profit of $800 for the property. That money just sits in the account in case of emergencies, repairs, or other unforeseen expenses.
Remember, the taxes and interest on the mortgage are tax write-offs at the end of the year for Mr. & Mrs. Jones.
At the end of the first year, September to December, there is $3200 worth of cash in the bank account, or roughly 50% of the initial down payment. Sally is happy because they can use that money to pay for Sally's 2nd semester tuition without any student loans, not to mention that she hasn't needed to work a job while going to school.
Mr. And Mrs. Jones are happy because of the great tax write-offs they get from the property, plus Sally has no excuses for not getting good grades.
Over the summer, the house pays for Sally to take some extra curricular courses, or perhaps do some traveling. Maybe she even just lounges around the yard and does nothing. She has options because she doesn't have to work.
By the start of September of the next year (beginning of Sally's 2nd year at university), the Jones' have collected $6400 in revenue from the property. Sally's tuition for the next semester is paid, so are her books and she's living for free. The cycle continues for the rest of her time at university.
At the end of the 4 years, they have profited over $20,000 in cash after all expenses. They have also been paying down the mortgage and the property has likely increased in value.
Sally hasn't worked a single day while at school, she has absolutely no student loans, and is fresh and ready for the work force. She's carrying no debt, so she quickly gets ahead in life.
Sally graduates with honors because she could focus on her studies and not worry about making money for school. Total investment from the Jones': $7500 in the initial deposit plus Sally's first semester tuition of approx. $2000.
Total profits; $35,000 in cash and equity. Is it any wonder why we're all trying to keep up with the Jones'!
But it doesn't stop there?
The Jones' now have to figure out what to do with the property. Sell it? Sure. They would net a tidy profit from the home. Remember, the mortgage has been paid down for the last 4 years, as well as the value increases of the home over those 4 years.
But let's say they keep the home and rent out the entire property to students. Their total revenue could be as high as $3000 per month, or $1900 after mortgages and taxes. And that's assuming that the rental rate hasn't gone up over the 4 years?
If you were the Jones', you could go to www.mercedesbenz.ca, pick out his and hers Mercedes convertibles, and not pay a dime for them. The leases would be covered every month by the $1900 in revenue.
For being such great parents, and paying for your child's entire education, you deserve a couple of convertibles don't you?!?
All figures are approximate, and provided as examples only. Some properties may not perform as well, while some may perform better. To select a good investment property, contact a real estate professional like John Carle and Sharon Gregresh. We do not guarantee good grades for your children at school.